Polessya 1-1 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Polessya welcome Inhulets to Tsentralnyi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season.
Inhulets — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Polessya are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.27 xG and Inhulets 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.035 / defence 0.929 | Inhulets attack 0.721 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.221. Data: 31 Polessya games / 2 Inhulets games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Polessya 47% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 24%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Inhulets 4.17. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 47% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Polessya 1.27 / Inhulets 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.035 / def 0.929 | Inhulets attack 0.721 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Polessya (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Inhulets xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Inhulets kick off?
Polessya vs Inhulets kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Inhulets?
Polessya 1 - 1 Inhulets.
Where is Polessya vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Inhulets part of?
Polessya vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 47% chance of winning, Inhulets a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Polessya and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Polessya and Inhulets in?
Polessya (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Inhulets (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Polessya's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Inhulets's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.44
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.08
0.82
Inhulets xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Polessya and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Polessya and 0.82 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Polessya come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Polessya have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Inhulets in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Early Season
Inhulets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Polessya or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Inhulets in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Polessya and Inhulets runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Polessya
1
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Inhulets?
From 2 meetings on record, Polessya have won 1, Inhulets have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Inhulets?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Polessya's recent matches and 50% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Polessya's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Inhulets tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya and Inhulets share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya and Inhulets finished level at 1-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.27 xG and Inhulets 0.82 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Inhulets attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 31/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 47% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 24%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 0%, Inhulets 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Polessya shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.