Polessya 1-4 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Polessya vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Polessya welcome Chornomorets to Tsentralnyi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Polessya — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Chornomorets have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Polessya) versus 0.70 (Chornomorets). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Polessya register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Chornomorets in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Polessya, 1 for Chornomorets and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Chornomorets winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Chornomorets trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 48% versus Chornomorets 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 38% | Chornomorets 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.13 xG and Chornomorets 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.885 / defence 1.145 | Chornomorets attack 0.957 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.168. Data: 21 Polessya games / 50 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 33% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 40%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Chornomorets 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Polessya 70% | Chornomorets 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 33% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Polessya 1.13 / Chornomorets 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.885 / def 1.145 | Chornomorets attack 0.957 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Chornomorets xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Chornomorets kick off?
Polessya vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Chornomorets?
Polessya 1 - 4 Chornomorets.
Where is Polessya vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Chornomorets part of?
Polessya vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 33% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Polessya and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Polessya 0W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are Polessya and Chornomorets in?
Polessya (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Polessya's attack rating (0.89) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.64
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.41
1.28
Chornomorets xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Polessya and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Polessya and 1.28 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Polessya's recent record stands at 9W 6D 6L from 21 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 11L across 21 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Polessya on 1.57 PPG, Chornomorets on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Polessya have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chornomorets's away record stands at 2W 1D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Polessya are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.38 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 9W 6D 6L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 8W 2D 11L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Chornomorets away?
Polessya's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.50 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Polessya or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Polessya have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Chornomorets won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Polessya's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Polessya
0
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Chornomorets?
From 5 meetings on record, Polessya have won 3, Chornomorets have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Chornomorets 1-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Chornomorets?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Polessya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Polessya at 70%, Chornomorets at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Polessya) and 50% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Polessya's games and 60% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Polessya vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Polessya's recent games and 50% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chornomorets run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Polessya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Polessya 1-4 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.13 xG and Chornomorets 1.28 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Chornomorets outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Chornomorets attack 0.96 / defence 1.20, drawn from 21/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 33% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 40%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 38%, Chornomorets 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 1.57 PPG, Chornomorets 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Polessya (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.