Oleksandria 2-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host FC Kharkiv at KSK Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 1.40 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (13 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (13 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 46% versus FC Kharkiv 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 31% | FC Kharkiv 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.06 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.925 / defence 1.179 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.697 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.163. Data: 13 Oleksandria games / 13 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 35% | Draw 35% | FC Kharkiv 30%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | FC Kharkiv 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 67% | FC Kharkiv 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 35% | Draw 35% | FC Kharkiv 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Oleksandria 1.06 / FC Kharkiv 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.925 / def 1.179 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.697 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.96
FC Kharkiv xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 5 November 2021 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Oleksandria 2 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 35% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oleksandria's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
35%
2.84
35%
2.87
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.02
0.96
FC Kharkiv xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.96 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 5W 5D 3L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 6W 1D 6L from 13 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oleksandria on 1.54 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Oleksandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.46 PPG overall record — FC Kharkiv travel well.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.23 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 6L in their last 13 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2023, when Oleksandria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Oleksandria at 67%, FC Kharkiv at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Oleksandria and 67% for FC Kharkiv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 33%; FC Kharkiv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Oleksandria's games and 67% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Oleksandria's matches and 67% of FC Kharkiv's.
Do Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat FC Kharkiv 2-0 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.06 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Kharkiv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 35% | Draw 35% | FC Kharkiv 30%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 31%, FC Kharkiv 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (13 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (13 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.54 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.