Oleksandria 1-1 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Livyi Bereh at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host Livyi Bereh at KSK Nika in Premier League, Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 June 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at KSK Nika this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Livyi Bereh haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Livyi Bereh have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 0.60 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Oleksandria's 30% rate and Livyi Bereh's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Oleksandria have won 2, Livyi Bereh 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Oleksandria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (34 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (34 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 50% versus Livyi Bereh 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 50% | Livyi Bereh 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.81 xG and Livyi Bereh 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.668 / defence 1.395 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.987 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.240. Oleksandria's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Oleksandria games / 30 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 17% | Draw 25% | Livyi Bereh 58%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Livyi Bereh 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Livyi Bereh (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Livyi Bereh at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 30% | Livyi Bereh 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Final | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Friday 5 Jun 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 17% | Draw 25% | Livyi Bereh 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Oleksandria 0.81 / Livyi Bereh 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.668 / def 1.395 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.987 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Livyi Bereh (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Livyi Bereh xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 5 June 2026 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh?
Oleksandria 1 - 1 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh is a Final fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 17% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Livyi Bereh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh?
Record (2 meetings): Oleksandria 2W | Draws 0 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.67x the league average against Livyi Bereh's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Livyi Bereh Win
17%
5.87
25%
4.00
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.52
1.71
Livyi Bereh xG
5.87
17%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
3%
32.37
26%
3.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.71 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 6W 9D 19L from 34 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 20L across 34 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. Livyi Bereh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oleksandria on 0.79 PPG, Livyi Bereh on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 3W 2D 10L from 15 games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Livyi Bereh's away record stands at 3W 2D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.65 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 24%.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Current Season
Livyi Bereh
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 6W 9D 19L in their last 34 games (0.79 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 8W 6D 20L in their last 34 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Oleksandria's home record (0.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 0.73 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Oleksandria's record when hosting Livyi Bereh specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
1
Draws
1
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh?
From 4 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 9 June 2026, when Livyi Bereh 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Oleksandria 40% BTTS, Livyi Bereh 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Oleksandria) and 33% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria have failed to score in 53% of games; Livyi Bereh in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 20% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Oleksandria's recent games and 33% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KSK Nika, Final, as Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.81 xG and Livyi Bereh 1.71 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.67 / defence 1.40 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 17% | Draw 25% | Livyi Bereh 58%, with Livyi Bereh to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 50%, Livyi Bereh 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (34 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (34 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 0.79 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.