Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Obolon'-Brovar take on FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Obolon Arena plays host to Obolon'-Brovar versus FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Obolon'-Brovar's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 4L from 9 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.56 goals per game and conceding 1.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 1L across 4 games at Obolon Arena this term (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Obolon Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Obolon'-Brovar, 1.20 for FC Kharkiv — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, FC Kharkiv in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading Data
Obolon'-Brovar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Obolon'-Brovar 22% | FC Kharkiv 44%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 22% | FC Kharkiv 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.66 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.666 / defence 0.964 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.726 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.169. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Obolon'-Brovar games / 38 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 40% | FC Kharkiv 35%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 4.00 | Draw 2.50 | FC Kharkiv 2.86. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.48. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.48 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Obolon'-Brovar's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.48 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 25% | FC Kharkiv 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 40% | FC Kharkiv 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.66 / FC Kharkiv 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.666 / def 0.964 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.726 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
0.82
FC Kharkiv xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 25% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 35% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 1.11 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Obolon'-Brovar's attack at 0.67x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.73x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 9/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 24.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.0%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
3.92
40%
2.51
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
1.48
0.82
FC Kharkiv xG
3.92
25%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.51
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
52%
1.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.8 | 18.6 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.4%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 0.82 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 1.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Obolon'-Brovar have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 3D 4L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Obolon'-Brovar against 1.33 for FC Kharkiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.78 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 0.75 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv?
From 4 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-3 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Obolon'-Brovar tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 25% (FC Kharkiv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Obolon'-Brovar and 0% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 75% of games; FC Kharkiv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 25% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 0% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat FC Kharkiv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat FC Kharkiv 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.66 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.82 xG, a combined 1.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Kharkiv landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.67 / defence 0.96 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.73 / defence 0.90, drawn from 9/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 40% | FC Kharkiv 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 45% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 22%, FC Kharkiv 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.00 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.