FC Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Vorskla Poltava travel to NSK Olimpijs'kyj to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv at NSK Olimpijs'kyj this season: 4W 1D 4L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at NSK Olimpijs'kyj than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava away from home this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (FC Kharkiv) versus 1.20 (Vorskla Poltava). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Vorskla Poltava and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 35% versus Vorskla Poltava 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 40% | Vorskla Poltava 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.18 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.859 / defence 0.865 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.962 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.168. Data: 20 FC Kharkiv games / 20 Vorskla Poltava games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 41% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Vorskla Poltava 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 44% | Vorskla Poltava 67%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (20 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 41% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.18 / Vorskla Poltava 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.859 / def 0.865 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.962 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Vorskla Poltava xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
FC Kharkiv 3 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 41% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.86) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (20/20 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.42
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.15
0.97
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.97 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 6W 3D 11L from 20 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 5L across 20 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vorskla Poltava by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 4W 1D 4L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.60 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 5L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.44 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.33 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
1
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when FC Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 44%, Vorskla Poltava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC Kharkiv) and 44% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of FC Kharkiv's games and 67% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 44% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out Vorskla Poltava 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Vorskla Poltava 3-2 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.18 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.97 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Kharkiv beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.86 / defence 0.86 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 20/20 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 41% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 30%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 40%, Vorskla Poltava 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with FC Kharkiv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.