LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 38%, yet in-form LNZ Cherkasy provide a compelling counter-argument — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy and Vorskla Poltava meet at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
LNZ Cherkasy at Cherkasy Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward LNZ Cherkasy. A 0.70 PPG lead over Vorskla Poltava (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 0 for Vorskla Poltava and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Vorskla Poltava 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 48% | Vorskla Poltava 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.04 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.810 / defence 1.193 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.797 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.205. Data: 29 LNZ Cherkasy games / 59 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 38%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Vorskla Poltava 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form LNZ Cherkasy (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Vorskla Poltava 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.04 / Vorskla Poltava 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.810 / def 1.193 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.797 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Vorskla Poltava xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 33% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 0W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 0W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Vorskla Poltava in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.80x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
33%
3.05
29%
3.43
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.19
1.15
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.15 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, LNZ Cherkasy have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 11W 9D 11L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 11W 6D 14L from 31 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.26 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 3D 6L from 14 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.10 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Current Season
Vorskla Poltava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 11W 9D 11L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 11W 6D 14L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.07 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
1
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Vorskla Poltava?
From 4 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Vorskla Poltava 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 36% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 36% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 43% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 36% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as LNZ Cherkasy defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.04 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.15 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.81 / defence 1.19 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 38%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 48%, Vorskla Poltava 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.35 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.