LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Tsentralnyi Stadium to take on LNZ Cherkasy. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Tsentralnyi Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Kharkiv are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, FC Kharkiv 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (LNZ Cherkasy 20% | FC Kharkiv 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 33% | FC Kharkiv 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.30 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.064 / defence 0.931 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.279 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.116. FC Kharkiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 LNZ Cherkasy games / 39 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 34%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | FC Kharkiv 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | FC Kharkiv 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.30 / FC Kharkiv 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.064 / def 0.931 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.279 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Kharkiv xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadium.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadium.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 33% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv?
Record (4 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 2 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
33%
3.07
34%
2.97
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.63
1.33
FC Kharkiv xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.33 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, LNZ Cherkasy have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 22W 8D 9L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 20W 12D 7L from 39 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.90 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 7D 3L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.38 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; FC Kharkiv in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 22W 8D 9L in their last 39 games (1.90 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 20W 12D 7L in their last 39 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or FC Kharkiv away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.95 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.79 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv?
From 4 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 26%, FC Kharkiv 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for LNZ Cherkasy and 42% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 37%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Kharkiv in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 53% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 42% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at LNZ Cherkasy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv finished level at 0-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.30 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.33 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against FC Kharkiv attack 1.28 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 34%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 33%, FC Kharkiv 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.90 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.