Livyi Bereh 1-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Livyi Bereh at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Final as Livyi Bereh welcome Oleksandria to Arena Livyi Bereg. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 9 June 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Livyi Bereh — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Livyi Bereh's home record at Arena Livyi Bereg: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Livyi Bereh are significantly better at Arena Livyi Bereg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Oleksandria's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Livyi Bereh at 0.50 PPG versus Oleksandria's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Oleksandria 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 26% versus Oleksandria 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 29% | Oleksandria 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.51 xG and Oleksandria 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 1.012 / defence 1.001 | Oleksandria attack 0.985 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.240. Oleksandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Livyi Bereh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Livyi Bereh games / 59 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 43% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 30%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Oleksandria 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Livyi Bereh at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Livyi Bereh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Livyi Bereh 40% | Oleksandria 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Final | Venue: Arena Livyi Bereg • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Jun 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 43% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Livyi Bereh 1.51 / Oleksandria 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 1.012 / def 1.001 | Oleksandria attack 0.985 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Livyi Bereh (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Oleksandria xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:30 on Tuesday 9 June 2026 at Arena Livyi Bereg.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria?
Livyi Bereh 1 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Livyi Bereg.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria is a Final fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 43% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Livyi Bereh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria?
Record (3 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 1 | Oleksandria 2W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Oleksandria (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Livyi Bereh's attack rating (1.01) and Oleksandria's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Livyi Bereh Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.76
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.74
1.22
Oleksandria xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
7%
15.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.22 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Livyi Bereh's recent record stands at 8W 7D 20L from 35 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 19L across 35 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Livyi Bereh on 0.89 PPG, Oleksandria on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Livyi Bereh have managed 5W 4D 9L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 2W 7D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.66 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 0.91 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
Oleksandria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 8W 7D 20L in their last 35 games (0.89 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 6W 10D 19L in their last 35 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Oleksandria away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.06 PPG; Oleksandria away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Livyi Bereh's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria?
From 4 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 1, Oleksandria have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 9 June 2026, when Livyi Bereh 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Livyi Bereh 28%, Oleksandria 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Livyi Bereh) and 50% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 50% of games; Oleksandria in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 61% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 50% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Livyi Bereh edge out Oleksandria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat Oleksandria 1-0 at Arena Livyi Bereg, Final, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.51 xG and Oleksandria 1.22 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Oleksandria attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 30/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 43% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 30%, with Livyi Bereh to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 29%, Oleksandria 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not.
Oleksandria's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 0.89 PPG, Oleksandria 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Livyi Bereh win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.