Livyi Bereh 0-3 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Livyi Bereh plays host to Livyi Bereh versus Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League (matchday 8). Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Livyi Bereh (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Livyi Bereh's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 3L across their last 7 home games (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo Kyiv have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dynamo Kyiv's form when playing away from home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.40 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 27% versus Dynamo Kyiv 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Livyi Bereh 27% | Dynamo Kyiv 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.59 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.586 / defence 1.089 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.341 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.144. Livyi Bereh's attack rating of 0.586 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack rating of 1.341, which lifts their away xG to 1.67. Data: built from Livyi Bereh's last 7 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 36.
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 12% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 63%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 8.38 | Draw 4.01 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.58. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (63%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Livyi Bereh 29% (last 7 home games) | Dynamo Kyiv 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 12% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Livyi Bereh 0.59 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.586 / def 1.089 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.341 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Dynamo Kyiv xG
37%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv FAQs
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Livyi Bereh 0 - 3 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 8) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 12% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 63% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.59. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (1.34x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from Livyi Bereh's last 7 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
12%
8.38
25%
4.01
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.6%
Away win
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.26
1.67
Dynamo Kyiv xG
8.38
12%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
56%
1.80
Win to Nil
2%
44.54
35%
2.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 17.5 | 14.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.67 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Livyi Bereh come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 2D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.55 PPG from 11 outings (9W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.55 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Livyi Bereh's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across their last 5 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.40 points per game from their last 5 away games (4W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.18 scored and 0.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
Livyi Bereh (Home) vs Dynamo Kyiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
❓ Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv Form FAQs
What form are Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 9W 1D 1L in their last 11 (2.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.20 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
2
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2025: Dynamo Kyiv 2-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Livyi Bereh) and 60% (Dynamo Kyiv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Livyi Bereh) and 60% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Livyi Bereh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Livyi Bereh 0-3 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.59 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.59 / defence 1.09 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.34 / defence 0.82, drawn from 7/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 12% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 63%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 27%, Dynamo Kyiv 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.