Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees FC Kharkiv travel to to take on Kudrivka. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kudrivka's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Kudrivka) versus 1.30 (FC Kharkiv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kudrivka, 1 for FC Kharkiv and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 53% versus FC Kharkiv 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kudrivka 47% | FC Kharkiv 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.20 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.097 / defence 1.107 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.175 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.103. Data: 34 Kudrivka games / 34 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 30% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 41%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | FC Kharkiv 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kudrivka 40% | FC Kharkiv 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 30% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Kudrivka 1.20 / FC Kharkiv 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.097 / def 1.107 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.175 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.44
FC Kharkiv xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026.
What competition is Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 30% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv?
Record (2 meetings): Kudrivka 0W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 1.10x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
30%
3.30
28%
3.52
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.64
1.44
FC Kharkiv xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.44 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Kudrivka have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 7W 11D 16L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 15W 12D 7L from 34 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kudrivka.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kudrivka have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 7W 7D 3L from 17 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kudrivka are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.21 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 7W 11D 16L in their last 34 games (0.94 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 15W 12D 7L in their last 34 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.24 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kudrivka
1
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv?
From 2 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 59%, FC Kharkiv 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Kudrivka) and 35% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 41%; Kudrivka have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Kharkiv in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 47% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Kudrivka's recent games and 35% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.