Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 Polessya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Polessya at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Polessya travel to Kolos Stadium to take on Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Kolos Kovalivka's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kolos Kovalivka are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Polessya stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Polessya's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Polessya's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Kolos Kovalivka's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Kolos Kovalivka, 1 for Polessya and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2025, ended Kolos Kovalivka 1–0 Polessya — a Kolos Kovalivka win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Polessya in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 44% versus Polessya 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 26% | Polessya 35%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kolos Kovalivka surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Polessya have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.94 xG and Polessya 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.901 / defence 0.842 | Polessya attack 1.166 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.243. Data: built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 46 games and Polessya's last 46.
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 31% | Polessya 42%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.62 | Draw 3.27 | Polessya 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 home games and Polessya's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kolos Kovalivka 50% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Kolos Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 31% | Polessya 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.94 / Polessya 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.901 / def 0.842 | Polessya attack 1.166 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Polessya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Polessya xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya FAQs
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Kolos Stadium.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 2 Polessya.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Kolos Stadium.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 28% chance of winning, Polessya a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.90) and Polessya's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 46 games and Polessya's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
28%
3.62
31%
3.27
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.16
1.22
Polessya xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.1 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.22 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kolos Kovalivka's recent record stands at 14W 19D 13L from 46 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 10L across 46 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kolos Kovalivka on 1.33 PPG, Polessya on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kolos Kovalivka have managed 5W 11D 6L from their last 22 home games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Polessya's away record stands at 12W 4D 6L across their last 22 away games, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.39 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Polessya in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Polessya
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 14W 19D 13L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Polessya have gone 21W 15D 10L in their last 46 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.18 PPG; Polessya away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Polessya in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kolos Kovalivka
3
Draws
2
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Kolos Kovalivka have won 1, Polessya have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 46%, Polessya 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Kolos Kovalivka and 41% for Polessya.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Polessya in 46%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 46% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 41% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 68% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kolos Kovalivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.94 xG and Polessya 1.22 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Polessya attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 31% | Polessya 42%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 26%, Polessya 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.33 PPG, Polessya 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.