Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Kolos Kovalivka take on Oleksandria.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Kovalivka plays host to Kolos Kovalivka versus Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 22 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kolos Kovalivka's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: D W D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Kolos Kovalivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria (all games): 2W 1D 1L across 4 Premier League outings this term — 1.75 points per game. Last five: W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria away from home this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.67 vs 1.75 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Kolos Kovalivka half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 33% versus Oleksandria 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 0% | Oleksandria 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.96 xG and Oleksandria 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.858 / defence 1.076 | Oleksandria attack 0.774 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.252. Data: 3 Kolos Kovalivka games / 4 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 29% | Draw 39% | Oleksandria 33%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Oleksandria 3.03. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 33% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Kovalivka • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 29% | Draw 39% | Oleksandria 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.96 / Oleksandria 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.858 / def 1.076 | Oleksandria attack 0.774 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Oleksandria xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadion Kovalivka.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kovalivka.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 29% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 33% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 D-W-D. Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kolos Kovalivka's attack at 0.86x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.77x) against Kolos Kovalivka's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.51
39%
2.57
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.01
1.04
Oleksandria xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 14.0 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.04 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kolos Kovalivka come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 2D 0L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Kolos Kovalivka against 1.33 for Oleksandria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Oleksandria in 67%.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Early Season
Oleksandria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 4-1 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
2
Draws
5
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria?
From 9 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Oleksandria have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Oleksandria 0-3 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 33%, Oleksandria 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Kolos Kovalivka and 33% for Oleksandria.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 33% of games; Oleksandria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 67% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 33% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Kolos Kovalivka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 at Stadion Kovalivka, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.96 xG and Oleksandria 1.04 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kolos Kovalivka fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against Oleksandria attack 0.77 / defence 0.99, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 29% | Draw 39% | Oleksandria 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 0%, Oleksandria 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.67 PPG, Oleksandria 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.