Inhulets 1-2 Minai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Inhulets at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Minai travel to Stadion Inhulets to take on Inhulets. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 September 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Inhulets, Inhulets have gone 2W 2D 5L this season (9 games, 0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Minai — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Minai have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Minai have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Inhulets 0.70 PPG, Minai 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Inhulets, 0 for Minai and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Inhulets in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Minai in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 50% versus Minai 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 45% | Minai 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.37 xG and Minai 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.999 / defence 1.141 | Minai attack 0.946 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.039. Data: 20 Inhulets games / 20 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 41% | Draw 29% | Minai 30%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Minai 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Inhulets 44% | Minai 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 41% | Draw 29% | Minai 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Inhulets 1.37 / Minai 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.999 / def 1.141 | Minai attack 0.946 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Minai xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Minai kick off?
Inhulets vs Minai kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Stadion Inhulets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Minai?
Inhulets 1 - 2 Minai.
Where is Inhulets vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Minai part of?
Inhulets vs Minai is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 41% chance of winning, Minai a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Inhulets and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Minai?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Minai 0W.
What form are Inhulets and Minai in?
Inhulets (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Minai (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 1.00x the league average against Minai's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.44
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.49
1.12
Minai xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.12 for Minai, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inhulets's recent record stands at 3W 6D 11L from 20 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Minai, meanwhile, have gone 1W 8D 11L across 20 games — 0.55 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Minai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inhulets on 0.75 PPG, Minai on 0.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 2W 2D 5L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Minai's away record stands at 0W 2D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inhulets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inhulets are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.70 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Early Season
Minai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Minai in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 3W 6D 11L in their last 20 games (0.75 PPG), while Minai have gone 1W 8D 11L in their last 20 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Minai away?
Inhulets's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 0.89 PPG; Minai away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inhulets and Minai runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Inhulets
1
Draws
1
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Minai?
From 3 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Minai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Minai 1-2 Inhulets.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 44%, Minai 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Inhulets) and 56% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Inhulets have failed to score in 44% of games; Minai in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Inhulets's recent matches and 44% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Inhulets's recent games and 56% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Minai tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Minai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Minai defy the odds to beat Inhulets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Minai beat Inhulets 1-2 at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.37 xG and Minai 1.12 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Minai outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against Minai attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 41% | Draw 29% | Minai 30%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Minai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 45%, Minai 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Minai's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.75 PPG, Minai 0.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Minai win broke the near-deadlock. Minai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.