Inhulets 1-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Inhulets face Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lviv travel to Stadion Inhulets to take on Inhulets in Premier League (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Monday 21 November 2022 at 10:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Inhulets have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Inhulets at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lviv stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lviv away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Inhulets) versus 0.80 (Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Inhulets, 0 for Lviv and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2021, ended Inhulets 2–1 Lviv — a Inhulets win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Inhulets in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 52% versus Lviv 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 52% | Lviv 41%). Note also that Lviv surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Inhulets recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.10 xG and Lviv 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.810 / defence 0.981 | Lviv attack 0.640 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.218. Lviv's attack rating of 0.640 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Inhulets's last 29 games and Lviv's last 30.
Result probabilities: Inhulets 43% | Draw 32% | Lviv 25%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.31 | Draw 3.17 | Lviv 3.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Inhulets's last 10 home games and Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Inhulets 40% (last 10 home games) | Lviv 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Monday 21 November 2022 at 10:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 43% | Draw 32% | Lviv 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Inhulets 1.10 / Lviv 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.810 / def 0.981 | Lviv attack 0.640 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Lviv xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Inhulets vs Lviv FAQs
What time does Inhulets vs Lviv kick off?
Inhulets vs Lviv kicked off at 10:00 UK time on Monday 21 November 2022 at Stadion Inhulets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Lviv?
Inhulets 1 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Inhulets vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Lviv part of?
Inhulets vs Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 43% chance of winning, Lviv a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Inhulets and Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Inhulets vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.81) and Lviv's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Inhulets's last 29 games and Lviv's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.17
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.86
0.76
Lviv xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Inhulets vs Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.76 for Lviv, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inhulets's recent record stands at 4W 8D 17L from 29 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 16L across 29 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inhulets on 0.69 PPG, Lviv on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 3W 2D 8L from their last 13 home games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lviv's away record stands at 4W 3D 6L across their last 13 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Inhulets are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.76 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Lviv
Blended
Inhulets (Home) vs Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Inhulets
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Inhulets vs Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Inhulets and Lviv in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 4W 8D 17L in their last 29 games (0.69 PPG), while Lviv have gone 6W 7D 16L in their last 29 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Lviv away?
Lviv's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 0.85 PPG; Lviv away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 29 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inhulets have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Inhulets
0
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Inhulets vs Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Lviv?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Inhulets have won 3, Lviv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 May 2023: Lviv 0-2 Inhulets.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Lviv?
Inhulets have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 46%, Lviv 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Inhulets and 23% for Lviv.
On the defensive side: Lviv in 31%; Inhulets have failed to score in 38% of games; Lviv in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Inhulets vs Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Inhulets and Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Inhulets's recent matches and 31% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Inhulets and Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Inhulets's recent games and 23% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Inhulets's recent matches and 38% of Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inhulets edge out Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.10 xG and Lviv 0.76 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Lviv attack 0.64 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 43% | Draw 32% | Lviv 25%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 52%, Lviv 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Lviv's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.69 PPG, Lviv 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inhulets win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.