Kryvbas KR 3-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kryvbas KR face Polessya.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR host Polessya at Stadion Hirnyk in Premier League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Kryvbas KR — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Kryvbas KR have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Polessya stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Polessya's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kryvbas KR at 1.60 PPG versus Polessya's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Kryvbas KR have won 0, Polessya 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2024, ended Kryvbas KR 0–1 Polessya — a Polessya win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Polessya in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 46% versus Polessya 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 44% | Polessya 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kryvbas KR surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Polessya have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.10 xG and Polessya 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.019 / defence 0.949 | Polessya attack 1.218 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.047. Polessya have an above-average attack rating of 1.218, which lifts their away xG to 1.21. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 43 games and Polessya's last 43.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 32% | Draw 30% | Polessya 38%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 3.11 | Draw 3.32 | Polessya 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 50% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 32% | Draw 30% | Polessya 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Kryvbas KR 1.10 / Polessya 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.019 / def 0.949 | Polessya attack 1.218 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Polessya (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Polessya xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Polessya FAQs
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Polessya kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Polessya kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 1 Polessya.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Polessya part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 32% chance of winning, Polessya a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kryvbas KR's last 43 games and Polessya's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
32%
3.11
30%
3.32
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.31
1.21
Polessya xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.21 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Kryvbas KR have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 23W 10D 10L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Polessya's form line: 20W 13D 10L from 43 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kryvbas KR on 1.84 PPG, Polessya on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kryvbas KR have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 20 home games (10W 6D 4L).
On the road, Polessya have gone 10W 4D 6L from their last 20 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.40 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Polessya
Blended
Kryvbas KR (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are Kryvbas KR and Polessya in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 games (1.84 PPG), while Polessya have gone 20W 13D 10L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Polessya away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.80 PPG; Polessya away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Polessya in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Polessya have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
4
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Polessya?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Kryvbas KR have won 1, Polessya have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Polessya 1-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 50%, Polessya 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Kryvbas KR) and 50% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Polessya in 40%; Polessya in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kryvbas KR and Polessya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 40% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kryvbas KR and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 50% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 70% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Polessya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Polessya 3-1 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.10 xG and Polessya 1.21 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Polessya attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 32% | Draw 30% | Polessya 38%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kryvbas KR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 44%, Polessya 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Polessya's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.84 PPG, Polessya 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Polessya (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.