Kryvbas KR 2-1 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Kryvbas KR welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Girnyk. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 August 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kryvbas KR stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Girnyk this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Girnyk. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Obolon'-Brovar away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kryvbas KR 1.80 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Kryvbas KR's 20% rate and Obolon'-Brovar's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Kryvbas KR: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Obolon'-Brovar, with 1 draws across those contests.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The historical record gives Kryvbas KR a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kryvbas KR 39% | Obolon'-Brovar 24%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.21 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.160 / defence 0.784 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.856 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.291. Kryvbas KR's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Kryvbas KR games / 33 Obolon'-Brovar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 44% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 26%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Obolon'-Brovar 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 20% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Girnyk • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 44% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.21 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.160 / def 0.784 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.856 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Obolon'-Brovar xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Girnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Kryvbas KR 2 - 1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Girnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 44% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (4 meetings): Kryvbas KR 3W | Draws 1 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 1.16x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.38
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.07
0.87
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.87 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 15W 8D 10L from 33 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 14L across 33 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 8W 3D 5L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 5W 3D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 24%.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Obolon'-Brovar in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 15W 8D 10L in their last 33 games (1.61 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.69 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 4, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kryvbas KR 38% BTTS, Obolon'-Brovar 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Kryvbas KR) and 44% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 31%; Obolon'-Brovar in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 25% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 44% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Obolon'-Brovar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Obolon'-Brovar 2-1 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.21 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.87 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.16 / defence 0.78 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 44% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 26%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 33%, Obolon'-Brovar 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.