FC Mariupol 1-2 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka to face FC Mariupol in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
FC Mariupol (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Mariupol have posted 0W 0D 5L at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Kharkiv are 0.90 PPG clear of FC Mariupol in recent Premier League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
FC Mariupol — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC Kharkiv — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Mariupol 70% versus FC Kharkiv 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Mariupol 80% | FC Kharkiv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 0.96 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.842 / defence 1.873 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.640 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.167. Data: 10 FC Mariupol games / 10 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 26% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 47%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | FC Kharkiv 2.13. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: FC Mariupol 60% | FC Kharkiv 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 26% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Mariupol 0.96 / FC Kharkiv 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.842 / def 1.873 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.640 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.40
FC Kharkiv xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What was the final score in FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv?
FC Mariupol 1 - 2 FC Kharkiv.
Where is FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv part of?
FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 26% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Mariupol and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Mariupol and FC Kharkiv in?
FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Mariupol's attack at 0.84x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.64x) against FC Mariupol's defence (1.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
26%
3.86
27%
3.69
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
2.36
1.40
FC Kharkiv xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
6%
15.59
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.40 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, FC Mariupol have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 1W 1D 8L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Mariupol.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Mariupol have posted 0.00 PPG from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L). That actually lags their 0.40 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Kharkiv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.90 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Mariupol and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 games (0.40 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Mariupol at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Mariupol at home: 0.00 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
0
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and FC Kharkiv?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Mariupol have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2021, when FC Mariupol 1-2 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Mariupol 60%, FC Kharkiv 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (FC Mariupol) and 20% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: FC Mariupol have failed to score in 40% of games; FC Kharkiv in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Mariupol play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of FC Mariupol's recent matches and 20% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Mariupol vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of FC Mariupol's recent games and 20% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Mariupol and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
FC Mariupol have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out FC Mariupol 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat FC Mariupol 1-2 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 0.96 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.40 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.84 / defence 1.87 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.64 / defence 1.07, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 26% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 47%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 80%, FC Kharkiv 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Mariupol's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.40. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.