Dynamo Kyiv 3-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dynamo Kyiv face Kryvbas KR.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv host Kryvbas KR at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo Kyiv stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Kryvbas KR's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Dynamo Kyiv have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Dynamo Kyiv hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Kryvbas KR, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The historical record gives Dynamo Kyiv a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 47% versus Kryvbas KR 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 52% | Kryvbas KR 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.78 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.590 / defence 0.628 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.125 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.193. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.590 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating of 0.628 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Dynamo Kyiv games / 58 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 60% | Draw 23% | Kryvbas KR 17%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Kryvbas KR 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Kyiv 20% | Kryvbas KR 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 60% | Draw 23% | Kryvbas KR 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.78 / Kryvbas KR 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.590 / def 0.628 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.125 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Kryvbas KR xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Dynamo Kyiv 3 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 60% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Kryvbas KR?
Record (3 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 3W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 0W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Kryvbas KR in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.59x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.35
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.63
0.84
Kryvbas KR xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
34.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.84 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 58 games, going 38W 9D 11L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.64 PPG from 58 outings (28W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 18W 5D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.45 points per game from 29 outings (12W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.26 scored and 0.98 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's scoring rate against Kryvbas KR's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Kryvbas KR in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Current Season
Kryvbas KR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 38W 9D 11L in their last 58 games (2.12 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 28W 11D 19L in their last 58 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.03 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dynamo Kyiv and Kryvbas KR runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dynamo Kyiv go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Dynamo Kyiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Dynamo Kyiv
0
Draws
0
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Kryvbas KR?
From 8 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 8, Kryvbas KR have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 5-6 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Kryvbas KR?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 31%, Kryvbas KR 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 41% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 31%; Kryvbas KR in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 41% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 41% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Kryvbas KR 3-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.78 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.84 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.59 / defence 0.63 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 60% | Draw 23% | Kryvbas KR 17%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 52%, Kryvbas KR 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.