Desna 1-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Desna at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Desna vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv to face Desna in Premier League (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Friday 17 September 2021 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
Desna (all games): 4W 1D 2L across their last 7 — 1.86 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.71 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings (29%).
At home, Desna have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 home games (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ruh Lviv's record over their last 7 games: 2W 2D 3L (1.14 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings (14%).
When travelling, Ruh Lviv have posted 0W 1D 3L from their last 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.14 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.72 in Desna's favour (1.86 vs 1.14) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Desna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 7 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 7 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 43% versus Ruh Lviv 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Desna 86% | Ruh Lviv 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 1.51 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 1.006 / defence 1.193 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.623 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.209. Ruh Lviv's defence rating of 1.279 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Desna's projected output up. Ruh Lviv's attack rating of 0.623 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Desna's last 7 games and Ruh Lviv's last 7.
Result probabilities: Desna 51% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 22%. Fair-value odds: Desna 1.97 | Draw 3.63 | Ruh Lviv 4.63. Desna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Desna as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Desna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Desna 25% (last 4 home games) | Ruh Lviv 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 8 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Friday 17 September 2021 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 51% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Desna 1.51 / Ruh Lviv 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 1.006 / def 1.193 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.623 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Desna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Desna xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ruh Lviv xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Desna vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Desna vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Desna vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Friday 17 September 2021 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What was the final score in Desna vs Ruh Lviv?
Desna 1 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Desna vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Desna vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 8) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 51% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Desna and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Desna vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Desna's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.62x) against Desna's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Desna's last 7 games and Ruh Lviv's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.63
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Desna xG
Total xG
2.41
0.90
Ruh Lviv xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
5%
21.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Desna vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Desna and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Desna and 0.90 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Desna come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Desna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Desna's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across their last 4 home games, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Ruh Lviv have taken 0.25 points per game from their last 4 away games (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ruh Lviv's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Desna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Desna are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Desna (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Desna
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Desna vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Desna and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Desna at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Desna's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Desna at home: 2.25 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 1 H2H match between Desna and Ruh Lviv, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 17 September 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Desna
0
Draws
0
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Desna vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Desna have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Desna and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 September 2021: Desna 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Desna and Ruh Lviv?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Desna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Desna 25%, Ruh Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Desna) and 25% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Desna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Desna vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Desna and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Desna's recent matches and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Desna and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Desna's recent games and 25% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Desna and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Desna's recent matches and 100% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Desna edge out Ruh Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 1.51 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 1.01 / defence 1.19 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.62 / defence 1.28, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 51% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 22%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 86%, Ruh Lviv 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Desna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.