Chornomorets 0-0 Metal Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metal Kharkiv at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Metal Kharkiv make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 25 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Chornomorets (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets at Stadion Chornomorets this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Metal Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Metal Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metal Kharkiv away from home this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.43 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Chornomorets against 0.80 for Metal Kharkiv. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Metal Kharkiv — key trading statistics (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 46% versus Metal Kharkiv 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 46% | Metal Kharkiv 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.09 xG and Metal Kharkiv 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.773 / defence 1.284 | Metal Kharkiv attack 0.944 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.209. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Chornomorets games / 13 Metal Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 26% | Metal Kharkiv 46%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Metal Kharkiv 2.17. Metal Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Metal Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Metal Kharkiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 50% | Metal Kharkiv 71% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Friday 25 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 26% | Metal Kharkiv 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Chornomorets 1.09 / Metal Kharkiv 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.773 / def 1.284 | Metal Kharkiv attack 0.944 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Metal Kharkiv (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Metal Kharkiv xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 25 November 2022 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv?
Chornomorets 0 - 0 Metal Kharkiv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv part of?
Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 28% chance of winning, Metal Kharkiv a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Metal Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Chornomorets and Metal Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Metal Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Metal Kharkiv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Metal Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.77x the league average against Metal Kharkiv's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Metal Kharkiv's attack (0.94x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 30/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metal Kharkiv Win
28%
3.55
26%
3.83
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.56
1.47
Metal Kharkiv xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
7%
15.36
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Metal Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.47 for Metal Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 3W 3D 7L from 13 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metal Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 6L across 13 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Metal Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Chornomorets against 1.15 for Metal Kharkiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metal Kharkiv's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metal Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Metal Kharkiv are on 1.15 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metal Kharkiv in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Metal Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Metal Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Metal Kharkiv have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Metal Kharkiv away?
Metal Kharkiv's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.00 PPG; Metal Kharkiv away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
1
Draws
0
Metal Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Metal Kharkiv?
From 2 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Metal Kharkiv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Metal Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Metal Kharkiv 0-3 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Metal Kharkiv?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Metal Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 43%, Metal Kharkiv 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Chornomorets) and 57% (Metal Kharkiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 43% of games; Metal Kharkiv in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Metal Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Metal Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Chornomorets's games and 71% of Metal Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chornomorets vs Metal Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Chornomorets's matches and 57% of Metal Kharkiv's.
Do Chornomorets and Metal Kharkiv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Metal Kharkiv in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chornomorets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets and Metal Kharkiv finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.09 xG and Metal Kharkiv 1.47 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Metal Kharkiv landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.77 / defence 1.28 against Metal Kharkiv attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 28% | Draw 26% | Metal Kharkiv 46%, with Metal Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 46%, Metal Kharkiv 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metal Kharkiv's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.92 PPG, Metal Kharkiv 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Metal Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.