Yeni Malatyaspor 2-2 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Malatya Stadyumu plays host to Yeni Malatyaspor versus Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Thursday 23 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Yeni Malatyaspor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yeni Malatyaspor's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 6L across 9 games at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu this term (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kayserispor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Yeni Malatyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 29% versus Kayserispor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 35% | Kayserispor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.61 xG and Kayserispor 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.856 / defence 1.813 | Kayserispor attack 0.859 / defence 1.600. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.170. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.600 — this is suppressing Yeni Malatyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 17 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 33% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 42%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Kayserispor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 56% | Kayserispor 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 33% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.61 / Kayserispor 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.856 / def 1.813 | Kayserispor attack 0.859 / def 1.600 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Kayserispor xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 23 December 2021 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Yeni Malatyaspor 2 - 2 Kayserispor.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 33% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Yeni Malatyaspor's attack rating (0.86) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.86x) against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence (1.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
33%
2.99
25%
4.07
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
3.43
1.82
Kayserispor xG
2.99
33%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
5%
18.46
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 1.82 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yeni Malatyaspor's recent record stands at 4W 2D 11L from 17 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 7L across 17 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Yeni Malatyaspor against 1.18 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Yeni Malatyaspor have managed 2W 1D 6L from 9 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.29 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 2D 11L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Yeni Malatyaspor's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.78 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
1
Draws
1
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Kayserispor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when Kayserispor 3-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yeni Malatyaspor 56%, Kayserispor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 56% (Kayserispor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Kayserispor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Yeni Malatyaspor's games and 56% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Yeni Malatyaspor's matches and 56% of Kayserispor's.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, as Yeni Malatyaspor and Kayserispor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.61 xG and Kayserispor 1.82 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.81 against Kayserispor attack 0.86 / defence 1.60, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 33% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 42%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 35%, Kayserispor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yeni Malatyaspor 0.82 PPG, Kayserispor 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.