Trabzonspor 3-2 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 74% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gaziantep FK travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Trabzonspor stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Gaziantep FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gaziantep FK's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trabzonspor at 1.40 PPG versus Gaziantep FK's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Trabzonspor hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Gaziantep FK and 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2024, ended Trabzonspor 0–0 Gaziantep FK — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Trabzonspor and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Gaziantep FK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 58% | Gaziantep FK 53%). Note also that Gaziantep FK surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Trabzonspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.65 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.334 / defence 0.755 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.970 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.218. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack rating of 1.334 — their 2.65 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Gaziantep FK's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trabzonspor's projected output up. Trabzonspor have a tight defence (rating 0.755), which is pulling Gaziantep FK's projected output down. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 60 games and Gaziantep FK's last 60.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Gaziantep FK 10%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.34 | Draw 6.37 | Gaziantep FK 10.13. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (74%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Trabzonspor 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Gaziantep FK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Gaziantep FK 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Gaziantep FK 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Trabzonspor 2.65 / Gaziantep FK 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.334 / def 0.755 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.970 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Gaziantep FK xG
55%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Trabzonspor 3 - 2 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 74% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.33x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 60 games and Gaziantep FK's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
74%
1.34
16%
6.37
10%
10.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.54
0.89
Gaziantep FK xG
1.34
74%
Home win
6.37
16%
Draw
10.13
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
7%
14.15
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
1%
143.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.89 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Trabzonspor have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 28W 12D 20L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 20W 13D 27L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.60 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Trabzonspor have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 29 home games (18W 4D 7L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 4D 18L from their last 29 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.30 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Gaziantep FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 28W 12D 20L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Nov 2021, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
0
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 7, Gaziantep FK have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Trabzonspor 2-0 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 55%, Gaziantep FK 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Trabzonspor and 72% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Trabzonspor's games and 62% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Trabzonspor's matches and 72% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 79% of Gaziantep FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Gaziantep FK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-2 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.65 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.89 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gaziantep FK outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.33 / defence 0.76 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Gaziantep FK 10%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 58%, Gaziantep FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.60 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.