Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Fenerbahçe at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's home record at Papara Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Trabzonspor have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Trabzonspor's 3 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 61% and Fenerbahçe 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Fenerbahçe 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.69 xG and Fenerbahçe 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.377 / defence 0.622 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.038 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.622 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Trabzonspor games / 44 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 58% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 18%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Fenerbahçe 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Fenerbahçe lead the H2H ledger, but Trabzonspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 40% | Fenerbahçe 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 58% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Trabzonspor 1.69 / Fenerbahçe 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.377 / def 0.622 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.038 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Fenerbahçe xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Papara Park.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 58% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 6W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.38x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
58%
1.71
24%
4.18
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.50
0.81
Fenerbahçe xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
3%
30.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.81 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 44 games, going 27W 10D 7L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.05 PPG from 44 outings (26W 12D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 2.07 PPG, Fenerbahçe on 2.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 14W 6D 2L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 1.91 points per game from 22 outings (12W 6D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.30 scored and 1.07 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 27W 10D 7L in their last 44 games (2.07 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 26W 12D 6L in their last 44 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.18 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
6
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Fenerbahçe have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 54%, Fenerbahçe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 64% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Trabzonspor's matches and 64% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.