Trabzonspor 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Medical Park Stadyumu to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Medical Park Stadyumu this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Medical Park Stadyumu.
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 62% versus Fatih Karagümrük 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 53% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.03 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.095 / defence 0.979 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.654 / defence 1.492. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.217. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.492 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Trabzonspor games / 32 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 13%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Fatih Karagümrük 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 48% | xG Trabzonspor 2.03 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.095 / def 0.979 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.654 / def 1.492 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Fatih Karagümrük xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 66% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.09x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.66
13%
7.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.81
0.78
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
7.91
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
2%
60.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.78 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 32 games, going 21W 9D 2L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.44 PPG from 32 outings (13W 7D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 11W 5D 0L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (5W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.22 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 21W 9D 2L in their last 32 games (2.25 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 13W 7D 12L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.38 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 62%, Fatih Karagümrük 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 62% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 44% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Trabzonspor's matches and 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 1-1 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.03 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.78 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.65 / defence 1.49, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 13%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 53%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.