Trabzonspor 1-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Adana Demirspor at Papara Park in Süper Lig (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Adana Demirspor have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Adana Demirspor have posted 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Trabzonspor's games and 60% of Adana Demirspor's (from Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Trabzonspor, 2 for Adana Demirspor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Trabzonspor 0–1 Adana Demirspor — a Adana Demirspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Adana Demirspor trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Adana Demirspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Adana Demirspor 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Trabzonspor surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Adana Demirspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.61 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.039 / defence 1.194 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.931 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.198. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 61 games and Adana Demirspor's last 62.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.41 | Draw 3.39 | Adana Demirspor 3.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.61 / Adana Demirspor 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.039 / def 1.194 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.931 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Adana Demirspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 41% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.04x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 61 games and Adana Demirspor's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
41%
2.41
30%
3.39
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.94
1.33
Adana Demirspor xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
6%
17.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.33 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 61 games, going 29W 10D 22L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.61 PPG from 61 outings (26W 20D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.59 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 19W 5D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 13D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.84 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 62%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 29W 10D 22L in their last 61 games (1.59 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 26W 20D 15L in their last 61 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.07 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Nov 2024, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 5-0 Adana Demirspor.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 6, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 47%, Adana Demirspor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Trabzonspor) and 53% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Trabzonspor's games and 70% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 53% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 70% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Adana Demirspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Adana Demirspor 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.61 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.33 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.19 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 29%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 57%, Adana Demirspor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.59 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.