Sivasspor 1-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Rizespor at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's home record at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 3W 5D 1L from 9 Süper Lig appearances (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 0W 0D 8L from 8 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.88 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sivasspor at 1.60 PPG versus Rizespor's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Rizespor trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 59% versus Rizespor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 47% | Rizespor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 2.21 xG and Rizespor 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.075 / defence 0.904 | Rizespor attack 0.594 / defence 1.725. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.160. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.725 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Sivasspor games / 17 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 73% | Draw 18% | Rizespor 8%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Rizespor 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (73%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 73% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 44% | Rizespor 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 73% | Draw 18% | Rizespor 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 42% | xG Sivasspor 2.21 / Rizespor 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.075 / def 0.904 | Rizespor attack 0.594 / def 1.725 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Rizespor xG
42%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Rizespor part of?
Sivasspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 73% chance of winning, Rizespor a 8% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sivasspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Rizespor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 1.07x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.73x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 3-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
73%
1.37
18%
5.43
8%
11.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.84
0.62
Rizespor xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
11.98
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
11%
9.15
Win to Nil
39%
2.55
1%
109.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.62 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 7D 4L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (5W 1D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sivasspor's home form reads 3W 5D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.00 points per game from 8 outings (0W 0D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.94 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 6W 7D 4L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 5W 1D 11L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Rizespor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Rizespor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Rizespor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Rizespor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 50%, Rizespor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sivasspor and 88% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rizespor in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 38% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sivasspor's matches and 88% of Rizespor's.
Do Sivasspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Rizespor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Rizespor finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 2.21 xG and Rizespor 0.62 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Rizespor attack 0.59 / defence 1.73, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 73% | Draw 18% | Rizespor 8%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 47%, Rizespor 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.