Sivasspor 0-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sivasspor face Kasımpaşa.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa meet at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 10:30 UK time.

Current Form

Sivasspor's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) — Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kasımpaşa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Kasımpaşa edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2024, ended Sivasspor 0–0 Kasımpaşa — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sivasspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 60% and Kasımpaşa 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sivasspor surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Kasımpaşa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.40 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.017 / defence 1.068 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.278 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.308. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack rating of 1.278, which lifts their away xG to 1.79. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 50 games and Kasımpaşa's last 50.

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 29% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 46%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.42 | Draw 3.98 | Kasımpaşa 2.19. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.79) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 60% (last 10 away games).

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