Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Fatih Karagümrük at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 4D 2L at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 1.30 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Sivasspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–3 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 61% versus Fatih Karagümrük 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 53% | Fatih Karagümrük 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.73 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.966 / defence 0.950 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.710 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.188. Data: 66 Sivasspor games / 66 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 58% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Fatih Karagümrük 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 58% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Sivasspor 1.73 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.966 / def 0.950 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.710 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Fatih Karagümrük xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 58% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (5 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 3W.
What form are Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.97) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
58%
1.73
27%
3.73
15%
6.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.53
0.80
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
6.53
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
3%
36.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.80 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 66 games, going 20W 19D 27L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.23 PPG from 66 outings (20W 21D 25L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.20 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 9W 14D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 0.97 points per game from 32 outings (7W 10D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.65 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 20W 19D 27L in their last 66 games (1.20 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 20W 21D 25L in their last 66 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.28 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 6 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2024, when Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 66%, Fatih Karagümrük 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sivasspor) and 56% (Fatih Karagümrük).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Sivasspor's games and 59% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sivasspor's recent games and 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.73 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.80 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.71 / defence 1.18, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 58% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 53%, Fatih Karagümrük 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.20 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.