Sivasspor 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to face Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 January 2025 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Sivasspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivasspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alanyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sivasspor, 1.20 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Sivasspor, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Alanyaspor — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
The historical record gives Sivasspor a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 58% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 51% | Alanyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.878 / defence 0.936 | Alanyaspor attack 0.763 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.221. Data: 55 Sivasspor games / 55 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 42% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Alanyaspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 60% | Alanyaspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 42% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sivasspor 1.23 / Alanyaspor 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.878 / def 0.936 | Alanyaspor attack 0.763 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Alanyaspor xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 42% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sivasspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Sivasspor 4W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Alanyaspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.76x) against Sivasspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
42%
2.37
34%
2.98
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.10
0.87
Alanyaspor xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.87 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 19W 16D 20L from 55 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 17W 22D 16L across 55 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.33 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 10W 10D 7L from 27 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 6W 11D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sivasspor are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 19W 16D 20L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 17W 22D 16L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.48 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sivasspor won 0-3 on 31 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sivasspor
2
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Alanyaspor 2-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Alanyaspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 56%, Alanyaspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sivasspor) and 37% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sivasspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Alanyaspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 48% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sivasspor's recent games and 37% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Sivasspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Alanyaspor attack 0.76 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 42% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 24%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 51%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.33 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.