Samsunspor 3-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 35%, yet in-form Trabzonspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Samsunspor host Trabzonspor at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Samsunspor have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Samsunspor have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Samsunspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Samsunspor have won 0, Trabzonspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Jan 2024, ended Samsunspor 1–2 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Samsunspor trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Trabzonspor trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 53% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 38% | Trabzonspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.21 xG and Trabzonspor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.855 / defence 0.827 | Trabzonspor attack 1.158 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.233. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 34 games and Trabzonspor's last 69.

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 35% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.85 | Draw 3.20 | Trabzonspor 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 30% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 away games).

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