Samsunspor 4-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Samsunspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Samsunspor stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Samsunspor's home record over their last 6 home games: 2W 1D 3L (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kasımpaşa — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Kasımpaşa's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Samsunspor 57% and Kasımpaşa 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.20 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.766 / defence 1.141 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.982 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.239. Samsunspor's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 14 games and Kasımpaşa's last 50.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 31% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 40%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.21 | Draw 3.48 | Kasımpaşa 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 67% (last 6 home games) | Kasımpaşa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 15 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 31% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Samsunspor 1.20 / Kasımpaşa 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.766 / def 1.141 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.982 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Kasımpaşa xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Samsunspor 4 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 15) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 31% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.77x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 14 games and Kasımpaşa's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
31%
3.21
29%
3.48
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.58
1.39
Kasımpaşa xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.85
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.39 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Samsunspor come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 2D 9L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Kasımpaşa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Samsunspor's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across their last 6 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 6 away games (2W 2D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.79 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 71%.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Samsunspor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 3W 2D 9L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.17 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won Kasımpaşa 1-4 Samsunspor.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Kasımpaşa 4-1 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 67%, Kasımpaşa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Samsunspor) and 50% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 33%; Samsunspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Kasımpaşa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Samsunspor's games and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Samsunspor's matches and 50% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 50% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Kasımpaşa 4-2 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.20 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.39 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.14 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 14/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 31% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 40%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 50%, Kasımpaşa 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Samsunspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.