Samsunspor 2-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 7 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Samsunspor have posted 6W 2D 2L at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Samsunspor. A 1.10 PPG lead over Hatayspor (1.50 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Samsunspor, 1 for Hatayspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 49% versus Hatayspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 46% | Hatayspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.31 xG and Hatayspor 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.092 / defence 0.914 | Hatayspor attack 1.054 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.261. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Samsunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Samsunspor games / 59 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 61% | Draw 21% | Hatayspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Hatayspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Hatayspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 61% | Draw 21% | Hatayspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Samsunspor 2.31 / Hatayspor 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.092 / def 0.914 | Hatayspor attack 1.054 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Hatayspor xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Hatayspor?
Samsunspor 2 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 61% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Samsunspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Hatayspor?
Record (3 meetings): Samsunspor 2W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Hatayspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (1.09) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (1.05x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.72
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.52
1.22
Hatayspor xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
10%
10.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
2%
55.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.22 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Samsunspor come into this having played 59 games, going 23W 14D 22L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.86 PPG from 59 outings (10W 21D 28L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Samsunspor's home form reads 16W 7D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.54 points per game from 28 outings (2W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 23W 14D 22L in their last 59 games (1.41 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 21D 28L in their last 59 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.96 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Samsunspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 3-0 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
0
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Hatayspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Samsunspor 2-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Hatayspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 54%, Hatayspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Samsunspor) and 46% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Hatayspor in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 50% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Samsunspor's recent games and 46% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Hatayspor 2-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.31 xG and Hatayspor 1.22 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Hatayspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 61% | Draw 21% | Hatayspor 18%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Hatayspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.