Samsunspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Samsunspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Samsunspor's favour (1.80 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Samsunspor's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) — Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Adana Demirspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Samsunspor edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Samsunspor 3–1 Adana Demirspor — a Samsunspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 49% versus Adana Demirspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 46% | Adana Demirspor 59%). Note also that Adana Demirspor surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Samsunspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.10 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.102 / defence 1.026 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.965 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.178. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 63 games and Adana Demirspor's last 63.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 58% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.71 | Draw 4.68 | Adana Demirspor 4.95. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Samsunspor's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 58% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Samsunspor 2.10 / Adana Demirspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.102 / def 1.026 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.965 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Adana Demirspor xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Samsunspor 3 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 58% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (1.10) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.96x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 63 games and Adana Demirspor's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
58%
1.71
21%
4.68
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.27
1.17
Adana Demirspor xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
12%
8.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
2%
40.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.17 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 25W 15D 23L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Adana Demirspor's form line: 12W 18D 33L from 63 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Samsunspor are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.87 PPG from their last 31 home games (17W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 12D 17L from their last 31 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Samsunspor (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 25W 15D 23L in their last 63 games (1.43 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 18D 33L in their last 63 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.87 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Samsunspor have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
0
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Samsunspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 52%, Adana Demirspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Samsunspor) and 55% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Samsunspor's games and 64% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Samsunspor's recent games and 55% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 81% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Adana Demirspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Adana Demirspor 3-2 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.10 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.17 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 58% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 20%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Adana Demirspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.