Rizespor 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rizespor face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Rizespor's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Konyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Konyaspor away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Rizespor edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2024, ended Rizespor 0–0 Konyaspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 42% versus Konyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Konyaspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.79 xG and Konyaspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.055 / defence 0.950 | Konyaspor attack 0.856 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.205. Data: built from Rizespor's last 52 games and Konyaspor's last 53.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 55% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.80 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 5.12. The model has a clear lean to Rizespor (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rizespor 40% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 16 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 55% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Rizespor 1.79 / Konyaspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.055 / def 0.950 | Konyaspor attack 0.856 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Konyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Rizespor 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Konyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 16) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 55% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rizespor and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rizespor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 1.05x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.86x) against Rizespor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 52 games and Konyaspor's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
55%
1.80
25%
4.00
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.77
0.98
Konyaspor xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
3%
30.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.98 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 52 games, going 20W 9D 23L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.13 PPG from 52 outings (14W 17D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Rizespor against 1.13 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 14W 6D 6L across their last 26 home games, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 26 away games (6W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
Rizespor (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Rizespor vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 20W 9D 23L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 14W 17D 21L in their last 52 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Konyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.85 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Rizespor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won Konyaspor 3-0 Rizespor on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Rizespor
3
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 4, Konyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Konyaspor 0-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 35%, Konyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Rizespor) and 42% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 31% of games; Konyaspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Konyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Rizespor's recent matches and 50% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Rizespor's recent games and 42% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Rizespor's recent matches and 62% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor and Konyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.79 xG and Konyaspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Konyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 55% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 20%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Konyaspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.33 PPG, Konyaspor 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.