Rizespor 1-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rizespor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Fenerbahçe meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fenerbahçe are 1.00 PPG clear of Rizespor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.40 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Rizespor have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Fenerbahçe in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fenerbahçe, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–5 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 40% versus Fenerbahçe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 44% | Fenerbahçe 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.78 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.847 / defence 0.909 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.538 / defence 0.627. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.152. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.627 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.538 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Rizespor games / 61 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 15% | Draw 30% | Fenerbahçe 55%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 6.67 | Draw 3.33 | Fenerbahçe 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 20% | Fenerbahçe 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 15% | Draw 30% | Fenerbahçe 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Rizespor 0.78 / Fenerbahçe 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.847 / def 0.909 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.538 / def 0.627 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Fenerbahçe xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Rizespor 1 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 15% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 55% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rizespor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (3 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 3W.
What form are Rizespor and Fenerbahçe in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.63x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.54x) against Rizespor's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 25/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
15%
6.53
30%
3.33
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.39
1.61
Fenerbahçe xG
6.53
15%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
3%
32.68
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.8 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.61 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor's recent record stands at 10W 6D 9L from 25 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 20W 4D 1L across 25 games — 2.56 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 8W 2D 2L from 12 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 11W 1D 0L across 12 trips, a 2.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.60 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 10W 6D 9L in their last 25 games (1.44 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 20W 4D 1L in their last 25 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.17 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.83 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-6 on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Rizespor
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Fenerbahçe 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fenerbahçe see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Rizespor) and 25% (Fenerbahçe) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Rizespor and 33% for Fenerbahçe.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Rizespor's recent matches and 25% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rizespor's recent games and 33% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 1-3 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.78 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.61 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.85 / defence 0.91 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.54 / defence 0.63, drawn from 25/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 15% | Draw 30% | Fenerbahçe 55%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 44%, Fenerbahçe 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rizespor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.