Rizespor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 1 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: L D W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.33 for Rizespor, 1.40 for Fatih Karagümrük — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Rizespor 0W, Fatih Karagümrük 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 67% versus Fatih Karagümrük 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rizespor 67% | Fatih Karagümrük 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.82 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.684 / defence 0.943 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.196 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.339. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Rizespor games / 39 Fatih Karagümrük games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 17% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 5.88 | Draw 3.03 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.00. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 67% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 17% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Rizespor 0.82 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.684 / def 0.943 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.196 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Fatih Karagümrük xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 September 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 17% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 50% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (2 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Rizespor (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.68x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (1.20x) against Rizespor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
The sample (3/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
17%
5.93
33%
3.00
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.33
1.51
Fatih Karagümrük xG
5.93
17%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
4%
26.85
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 14.6 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.51 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Rizespor against 1.33 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Rizespor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 4-0 on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rizespor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 67%, Fatih Karagümrük 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Rizespor and 0% for Fatih Karagümrük.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 33%; Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Rizespor's recent matches and 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Rizespor's recent games and 0% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.82 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.51 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.68 / defence 0.94 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.20 / defence 0.90, drawn from 3/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 17% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 67%, Fatih Karagümrük 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.33 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.