Rizespor 3-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Rizespor take on Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Başakşehir travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rizespor stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 1L across their last 6 home games (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Başakşehir — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.40 PPG, Başakşehir 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (from Rizespor's last 6 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games). Rizespor's 17% and Başakşehir's 10% BTTS rates are both low — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Rizespor, 2 for Başakşehir and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2022, ended Rizespor 0–2 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 38% of Rizespor's games and 23% of Başakşehir's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rizespor 38% | Başakşehir 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.79 xG and Başakşehir 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.623 / defence 0.822 | Başakşehir attack 0.646 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.208. Rizespor's attack rating of 0.623 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Başakşehir's attack rating of 0.646 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Rizespor's last 13 games and Başakşehir's last 49.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 34% | Draw 41% | Başakşehir 25%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.95 | Draw 2.44 | Başakşehir 3.99. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS Yes probability 27% | Total xG 1.43. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.43 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Başakşehir's lower xG of 0.64 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 83% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 6 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 1.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rizespor 17% (last 6 home games) | Başakşehir 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 14 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 34% | Draw 41% | Başakşehir 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% (Under 83%) | BTTS Yes 27% (No 73%) | xG Rizespor 0.79 / Başakşehir 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.623 / def 0.822 | Başakşehir attack 0.646 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Başakşehir xG
27%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Rizespor 3 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Rizespor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Başakşehir part of?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 14) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 34% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 25% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Rizespor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (73%).
Will Rizespor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (83%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.62x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 13 games and Başakşehir's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 25.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
41%
2.44
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Rizespor xG
Total xG
1.43
0.64
Başakşehir xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.44
41%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.64
73%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.0 | 15.4 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.5%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.64 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 1.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor's recent record stands at 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 7L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rizespor by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 3W 2D 1L from their last 6 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across their last 6 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 0.92 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir in 23%.
Defensively: Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Rizespor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Rizespor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Başakşehir away?
Rizespor's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.83 PPG; Başakşehir away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Sep 2021, when Başakşehir won Başakşehir 3-0 Rizespor.
Rizespor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Başakşehir see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Rizespor 17% BTTS, Başakşehir 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Rizespor and 17% for Başakşehir.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Başakşehir in 50%; Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Başakşehir in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Rizespor's recent matches and 0% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Rizespor's recent games and 17% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Başakşehir 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Başakşehir 3-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.79 xG and Başakşehir 0.64 xG, a combined 1.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.62 / defence 0.82 against Başakşehir attack 0.65 / defence 0.82, drawn from 13/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 34% | Draw 41% | Başakşehir 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 38%, Başakşehir 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.