Pendikspor 1-5 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pendikspor and Hatayspor meet at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor have collected 0.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Hatayspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Hatayspor away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.84 xG and Hatayspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Hatayspor attack 0.718 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.421. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Pendikspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Pendikspor games / 36 Hatayspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 53% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Hatayspor 4.17. Pendikspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pendikspor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pendikspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 53% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Pendikspor 1.84 / Hatayspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Hatayspor attack 0.718 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Pendikspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hatayspor xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Pendikspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Hatayspor?
Pendikspor 1 - 5 Hatayspor.
Where is Pendikspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Pendikspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 53% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pendikspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pendikspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pendikspor and Hatayspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Hatayspor (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pendikspor's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.72x) against Pendikspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 0/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pendikspor Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.39
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.02
1.17
Hatayspor xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
4%
26.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.17 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Pre-Season
Hatayspor
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
1
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Hatayspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 0, Hatayspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Hatayspor 1-1 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Hatayspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Hatayspor run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Pendikspor 1-5 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.84 xG and Hatayspor 1.17 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Pendikspor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Hatayspor outscored their 1.17 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Hatayspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.26, drawn from 0/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 53% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 24%, with Pendikspor to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Hatayspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.