Ümraniyespor 1-3 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu plays host to Ümraniyespor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Ümraniyespor (all games): 0W 3D 6L across 9 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ümraniyespor's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 games at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Fatih Karagümrük are the stronger side — 0.57 PPG clear of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.33). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Ümraniyespor — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ümraniyespor 44% versus Fatih Karagümrük 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ümraniyespor 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 1.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.704 / defence 1.136 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.065 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.288. Ümraniyespor's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Ümraniyespor games / 47 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 28% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 47%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.13. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ümraniyespor 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 28% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Ümraniyespor 1.15 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.704 / def 1.136 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.065 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Fatih Karagümrük xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Ümraniyespor 1 - 3 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 28% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ümraniyespor's attack rating (0.70) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (1.06x) against Ümraniyespor's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
28%
3.56
25%
3.98
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
2.71
1.56
Fatih Karagümrük xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
16.90
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.56 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ümraniyespor's recent record stands at 0W 3D 6L from 9 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 4L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fatih Karagümrük by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ümraniyespor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ümraniyespor have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fatih Karagümrük's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ümraniyespor are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.78 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ümraniyespor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fatih Karagümrük's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ümraniyespor at home: 0.25 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Ümraniyespor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ümraniyespor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ümraniyespor
0
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 0, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük 4-2 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Ümraniyespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ümraniyespor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ümraniyespor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ümraniyespor) and 50% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 50%; Ümraniyespor have failed to score in 50% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ümraniyespor's recent matches and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ümraniyespor's recent games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ümraniyespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Ümraniyespor 1-3 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 1.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.56 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.70 / defence 1.14 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.06 / defence 1.17, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 28% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 47%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 33%, Fatih Karagümrük 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.