Konyaspor vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Samsunspor at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Samsunspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 11 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Konyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 4W 3D 3L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Samsunspor arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Konyaspor 2W, Samsunspor 2W, 2D.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 62% and Samsunspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Samsunspor 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.10 xG and Samsunspor 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.822 / defence 1.052 | Samsunspor attack 1.095 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.220. Data: 38 Konyaspor games / 37 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 30% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Samsunspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Samsunspor 60%.

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