Konyaspor 1-0 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Göztepe travel to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu to take on Konyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Konyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Göztepe's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Konyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Konyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Göztepe in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Göztepe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Göztepe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Göztepe in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 57% versus Göztepe 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Göztepe 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.59 xG and Göztepe 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.930 / defence 0.863 | Göztepe attack 0.862 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.197. Data: 67 Konyaspor games / 28 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 21%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Göztepe 4.76. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 60% | Göztepe 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Konyaspor 1.59 / Göztepe 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.930 / def 0.863 | Göztepe attack 0.862 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Göztepe xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Göztepe.
Where is Konyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Konyaspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 53% chance of winning, Göztepe a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
Record (3 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Göztepe in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Göztepe (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.79
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.48
0.89
Göztepe xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
4%
23.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.89 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 7D 13L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.11 PPG, Göztepe on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Konyaspor's home form reads 6W 5D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 0.57 points per game from 14 outings (1W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.64 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 8W 7D 13L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 10W 9D 9L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Göztepe away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.64 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when Konyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Konyaspor 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 57%, Göztepe 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Konyaspor) and 50% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Göztepe in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Konyaspor's games and 71% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Göztepe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Göztepe 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.59 xG and Göztepe 0.89 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Göztepe attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 67/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Göztepe 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Göztepe's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.11 PPG, Göztepe 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.