Konyaspor 0-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Fenerbahçe have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Konyaspor, 1.80 for Fenerbahçe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Fenerbahçe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2025, ended 0–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 63% and Fenerbahçe 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 52% | Fenerbahçe 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.41 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.981 / defence 0.819 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.423 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Konyaspor games / 68 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 31%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Fenerbahçe 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Fenerbahçe 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Konyaspor 1.41 / Fenerbahçe 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.981 / def 0.819 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.423 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Fenerbahçe xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Konyaspor 0 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (8 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 6W.
What form are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.98) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.42x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
36%
2.76
33%
3.04
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.71
1.29
Fenerbahçe xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
7%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.29 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 23W 17D 28L from 68 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 46W 16D 6L across 68 games — 2.26 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Konyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 15W 11D 8L from 34 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 21W 9D 4L across 34 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.37 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 23W 17D 28L in their last 68 games (1.26 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 46W 16D 6L in their last 68 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.65 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 7-1 on 10 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
1
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 59%, Fenerbahçe 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Konyaspor) and 65% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Konyaspor's games and 56% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Konyaspor's matches and 65% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Konyaspor 0-3 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.41 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.29 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.42 / defence 0.98, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 31%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Fenerbahçe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 52%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.