Kayserispor 1-3 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Sivasspor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 January 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
Sivasspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Kayserispor have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Kayserispor have won 2, Sivasspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kayserispor trading profile (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sivasspor trading profile (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 51% versus Sivasspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 58% | Sivasspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.92 xG and Sivasspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.062 / defence 0.931 | Sivasspor attack 0.988 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.233. Data: 53 Kayserispor games / 53 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 54% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Sivasspor 4.76. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Kayserispor 40% | Sivasspor 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jan 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 54% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Kayserispor 1.92 / Sivasspor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.062 / def 0.931 | Sivasspor attack 0.988 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sivasspor xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 7 January 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 3 Sivasspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 54% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kayserispor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
Record (4 meetings): Kayserispor 2W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Sivasspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 1.06x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.09
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.05
1.13
Sivasspor xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
3%
32.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.13 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 23W 10D 20L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 16W 14D 23L from 53 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.49 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (14W 5D 8L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 10W 2D 15L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 23W 10D 20L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Sivasspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.74 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2021, when Kayserispor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
1
Draws
5
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Sivasspor 5-2 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 44%, Sivasspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Kayserispor and 70% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sivasspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 56% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Kayserispor's matches and 70% of Sivasspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Kayserispor 1-3 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.92 xG and Sivasspor 1.13 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sivasspor outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against Sivasspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 54% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 21%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sivasspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 58%, Sivasspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.49 PPG, Sivasspor 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.