Kayserispor 2-4 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu plays host to Kayserispor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Wednesday 4 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Kayserispor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Fatih Karagümrük's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kayserispor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kayserispor 1W, Fatih Karagümrük 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 0–3 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 58% versus Fatih Karagümrük 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 58% | Fatih Karagümrük 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.97 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.048 / defence 0.955 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.084 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.373. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Kayserispor games / 53 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 28%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.57. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Kayserispor 1.97 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.048 / def 0.955 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.084 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Fatih Karagümrük xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Kayserispor 2 - 4 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 50% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (2 meetings): Kayserispor 1W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (1.08x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
50%
1.99
22%
4.50
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.39
1.42
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
14%
7.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
4%
25.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.42 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 19W 13D 21L from 53 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 20L across 53 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.38 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 14W 5D 7L from 26 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 7W 6D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.43 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 19W 13D 21L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 20W 13D 20L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.81 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
4
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 54%, Fatih Karagümrük 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Kayserispor and 62% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 54% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Kayserispor's matches and 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Kayserispor 2-4 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.97 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.42 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 1.42 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 50% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 28%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Fatih Karagümrük win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 58%, Fatih Karagümrük 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.32 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.