Kayserispor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 54%, yet in-form Fatih Karagümrük provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı plays host to Kayserispor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Fatih Karagümrük arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 50% versus Fatih Karagümrük 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.59 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.053 / defence 0.997 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.810 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.122. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Kayserispor games / 10 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 54% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 21%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.76. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fatih Karagümrük (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 54% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Kayserispor 1.59 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.053 / def 0.997 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.810 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Fatih Karagümrük xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Kayserispor 2 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 54% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.81x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
54%
1.87
25%
3.99
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.50
0.91
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
4%
23.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.91 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 2L across 10 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fatih Karagümrük by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Fatih Karagümrük in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.75 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
4
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kayserispor) and 50% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 25% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kayserispor's recent games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.59 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.91 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.81 / defence 1.25, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 54% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 21%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Kayserispor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.