Kayserispor 2-2 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 37%, yet in-form Eyüpspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eyüpspor travel to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu to take on Kayserispor in Süper Lig (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kayserispor stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Kayserispor have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 4 games, Eyüpspor have recorded 2W 2D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Form points away from home here. Eyüpspor's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Kayserispor's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kayserispor 75% and Eyüpspor 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 75% | Eyüpspor 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.25 xG and Eyüpspor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.926 / defence 1.136 | Eyüpspor attack 0.839 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.289. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 40 games and Eyüpspor's last 4.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.74 | Draw 3.55 | Eyüpspor 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eyüpspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 70% (last 10 home games) | Eyüpspor 50% (last 4 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 5 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Kayserispor 1.25 / Eyüpspor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.926 / def 1.136 | Eyüpspor attack 0.839 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Eyüpspor xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Kayserispor 2 - 2 Eyüpspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 5) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 37% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kayserispor and Eyüpspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.93x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 40 games and Eyüpspor's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
37%
2.74
28%
3.55
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.48
1.23
Eyüpspor xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.23 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-D across their last five.
Eyüpspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Eyüpspor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Kayserispor (Home) vs Eyüpspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Kayserispor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
4
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Eyüpspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Kayserispor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 75%, Eyüpspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Kayserispor) and 25% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Eyüpspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kayserispor's games and 50% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Kayserispor's recent games and 25% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Eyüpspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 50% of Eyüpspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, as Kayserispor and Eyüpspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.25 xG and Eyüpspor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Eyüpspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 37% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 35%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 75%, Eyüpspor 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kayserispor scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Eyüpspor shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.