Kayserispor 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 42%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kayserispor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Kayserispor welcome Başakşehir to Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 19 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Başakşehir's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Kayserispor's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kayserispor, 0 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Kayserispor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kayserispor trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Başakşehir trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 55% versus Başakşehir 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 45% | Başakşehir 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.10 xG and Başakşehir 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.999 / defence 0.801 | Başakşehir attack 0.939 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.098. Data: 21 Kayserispor games / 20 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 42% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 27%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Başakşehir 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kayserispor 40% | Başakşehir 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 42% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Kayserispor 1.10 / Başakşehir 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.999 / def 0.801 | Başakşehir attack 0.939 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Başakşehir xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kayserispor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Kayserispor 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir part of?
Kayserispor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 42% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Kayserispor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 1W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 0W.
What form are Kayserispor and Başakşehir in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
42%
2.41
32%
3.15
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
1.93
0.83
Başakşehir xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.83 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 7W 7D 6L from 20 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 6L across 20 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.40 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 6W 3D 1L from 10 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir in 60%.
Defensively: Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 7W 7D 6L in their last 20 games (1.40 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Başakşehir away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.10 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2026, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Kayserispor
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 5, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Kayserispor 0-3 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 40%, Başakşehir 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Kayserispor) and 60% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Kayserispor's games and 70% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Kayserispor's recent games and 60% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.10 xG and Başakşehir 0.83 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.00 / defence 0.80 against Başakşehir attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 42% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 27%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 45%, Başakşehir 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Başakşehir's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.40 PPG, Başakşehir 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.