Kayserispor 3-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 67% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kayserispor face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu plays host to Kayserispor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 35). Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Kayserispor have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Antalyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Kayserispor, 1.70 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Antalyaspor's last 10 away games) — Kayserispor have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Antalyaspor in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2024, ended Kayserispor 0–2 Antalyaspor — a Antalyaspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 53% versus Antalyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 49% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.92 xG and Antalyaspor 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.024 / defence 0.839 | Antalyaspor attack 0.653 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.219. Antalyaspor's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 70 games and Antalyaspor's last 70.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 67% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.49 | Draw 4.83 | Antalyaspor 8.27. The model has a clear lean to Kayserispor (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 30% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 35 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 67% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Kayserispor 1.92 / Antalyaspor 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.024 / def 0.839 | Antalyaspor attack 0.653 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Antalyaspor xG
42%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 12 May 2025 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor 3 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 35) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 67% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kayserispor and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (1.02) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.65x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 70 games and Antalyaspor's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.83
12%
8.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.59
0.67
Antalyaspor xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
8.27
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
2%
56.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.67 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor come into this having played 70 games, going 21W 23D 26L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.31 PPG from 70 outings (24W 20D 26L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.31 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kayserispor's home form reads 13W 12D 10L across their last 35 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 35 away games (6W 9D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Kayserispor (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 21W 23D 26L in their last 70 games (1.23 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 24W 20D 26L in their last 70 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.46 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won Antalyaspor 4-0 Kayserispor on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
4
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Kayserispor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 51%, Antalyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Kayserispor) and 51% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 26% of games; Antalyaspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Antalyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 54% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Kayserispor's recent games and 51% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 83% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Antalyaspor 3-1 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.92 xG and Antalyaspor 0.67 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Antalyaspor attack 0.65 / defence 1.18, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 67% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 12%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 49%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.23 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.