Kasımpaşa 1-4 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Samsunspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Samsunspor have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Samsunspor have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Samsunspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Kasımpaşa 1–0 Samsunspor — a Kasımpaşa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Samsunspor trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 64% versus Samsunspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Samsunspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 0.86 xG and Samsunspor 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.749 / defence 0.982 | Samsunspor attack 1.073 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.308. Kasımpaşa's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 47 games and Samsunspor's last 47.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 23% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 49%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 4.30 | Draw 3.56 | Samsunspor 2.06. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 50% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 10 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 23% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Kasımpaşa 0.86 / Samsunspor 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.749 / def 0.982 | Samsunspor attack 1.073 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Samsunspor xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 4 Samsunspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 10) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 23% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.75) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 47 games and Samsunspor's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
23%
4.30
28%
3.56
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.24
1.38
Samsunspor xG
4.30
23%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
6%
17.07
21%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.6 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.38 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 47 games, going 18W 13D 16L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.32 PPG from 47 outings (17W 11D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.43 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.87 points per game from their last 23 away games (5W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Samsunspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.35 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won Kasımpaşa 1-4 Samsunspor.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Kasımpaşa 4-1 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 61%, Samsunspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Kasımpaşa) and 44% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 30% of games; Samsunspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Kasımpaşa's games and 52% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 44% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 70% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-4 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 0.86 xG and Samsunspor 1.38 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 1.38 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.75 / defence 0.98 against Samsunspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 23% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 49%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Samsunspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.43 PPG, Samsunspor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.